Ethiopia’s Renewable Fuel Take-Off: Building Africa’s Next Biofuel and SAF Hub

As Ethiopia advances its national energy transition, two landmark reports have crystallised the opportunity ahead: the Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials (RSB) 2025 Biofuel Strategy and the World Bank’s 2024 “Fueling Africa’s Flight” assessment. Together, they paint a compelling picture — one where Ethiopia could become a continental leader in bioethanol and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production.

From Cassava to Sustainable Jet Fuel

Ethiopia’s biofuel journey began with a simple ambition: to reduce fuel imports and create rural jobs through domestic ethanol production.

The RSB Biofuel Strategy reaffirmed this goal, setting out a policy roadmap built on three pillars:

1. Feedstock expansion – large-scale cassava and sugarcane development with smallholder out-growers.

2. National blending mandates – progressive ethanol blending targets of E10 → E20, backed by fuel security objectives.

3. Private-sector participation – incentives for investors through public-private partnerships, concessional finance, and tax reliefs.

Today, Ethiopia already produces ethanol from molasses for both E5 fuel blending and clean cooking, but supply remains far below potential. With the sugar sector under reform, the government aims to revive underutilised estates like Finchaa, Metehara, and Kessem — creating a platform for industrial biofuel expansion.

The Alcohol-to-Jet Advantage

The World Bank’s 2024 SAF report identifies Ethiopia as one of Africa’s most promising locations for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production.Its techno-economic modelling found that the Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) pathway is the optimal technology for Ethiopia — both technically and economically.

“An investment of $376 million in an alcohol-to-jet facility could meet 6 percent of Ethiopia’s jet-fuel demand,”

notes the World Bank, highlighting sugarcane and molasses as the most viable feedstocks.

Unlike other SAF pathways such as Fischer-Tropsch or hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA), ATJ leverages Ethiopia’s existing ethanol infrastructure. By converting fermented ethanol into jet fuel through dehydration, oligomerisation and hydrogenation, the country can extend the value chain of its bioethanol industry into aviation fuels — a strategic advantage few African nations possess.

Market Potential Across Transport, Cooking and Aviation

The RSB Biofuel Strategy forecasts a combined national bioethanol demand exceeding 250–350 million litres per year by 2030:

Segment	Forecast Demand (L/yr)	Drivers
Transport blending (E10–E20)	115–230 million	Import substitution & energy security
Clean cooking fuels	120–150 million	Replacing charcoal, kerosene & LPG
SAF (ATJ)	0.5–1 million (initial)	National aviation decarbonisation

This multi-sector demand base offers investors a diversified revenue model: domestic blending, clean-cooking distribution, and exportable SAF via book-and-claim systems under ICAO CORSIA or EU ReFuelEU frameworks.

Policy Tailwinds: Ethiopia’s Biofuel Transformation

Both the RSB and World Bank highlight clear policy imperatives driving the sector:

• Energy security – Biofuels reduce dependency on imported petroleum, saving scarce foreign exchange.

• Climate alignment – SAF from sugarcane or molasses can cut lifecycle emissions by >60 percent, meeting international certification thresholds.

• Investment readiness – Reforms to open Ethiopia’s fuel import market and attract private capital mark a decisive shift toward liberalisation.

• Social inclusion – Out-grower programmes ensure rural communities share in value creation from feedstock production.

The Road Ahead

Ethiopia’s next decade will be defined by its ability to turn feedstock abundance into refined fuels.

With ATJ technology as its backbone, the country can establish a vertically integrated renewable-fuel value chain — from sugarcane farms to SAF-ready airports.

But success will hinge on coordinated action:

• government policy enforcement,

• concessional financing from development banks,

• and strategic partnerships with global fuel offtakers.

As the World Bank concludes, “Ethiopia’s heavy reliance on imported jet fuel makes local SAF production a strategic priority for enhancing energy security and reducing operational costs for its aviation sector.”

In Summary

Ethiopia stands on the threshold of a renewable-fuel revolution. With the RSB setting the policy vision and the World Bank validating the economics, the country has all the ingredients — feedstock, demand, and intent — to become Africa’s first integrated bioethanol-to-SAF hub.

Together, these measures signal a transition from pilot-scale projects to a bankable national industry.

Opinion by Richard Bennett.